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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  January 4, 2013 4:00am-6:00am EST

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headline low. this is today's "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. here with your headlines from around the world. the dollar treasury yields continue to prove surprisingly hawkish among concerns of some about the bank qe program. that may add more to today's strange jobs report which led to spectacular hiring growth. meanwhile, here in europe, composite pmi shows manufacturing in contraction territory. we'll look ahead to uk services pmi in under half an hour. this after the hsbc in china shows a slowdown the lowest since august 2011.
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>> warm welcome to you. 47.8, services pmi. it marked a five-month high. that mean the composite number has picked up slightly. the final composite number confirmed at 47.2, a little weaker than 47.3 flash, 46.5 in november. it is nevertheless the high since march. perhaps some tentative signs emerging that the eurozone economy may have passed the worst of its downturn, although recovery still looks months away. the december services business expectations up 52.5. it was 52.6 in the flash to slightly weaker on that particular point. let's get immediate reaction to what this may mean. christine is with us for the first hour of the program today. chris, happy new year. happy new year to you. >> good to see you today.
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this survey up to multi month high necessary all four of the largest euro area countries, just in the rate of decline, easing in france, easing in spain, situation stabilizing in germany. what does that mean for investors? >> we get two flashes, we get the flash and the final. so not only are we getting an indication of the progression month to month, but we're getting this sort of update. so the market feels they have momentum. since july, really, it's the commitment from mario draghi to do whatever it takes to save the eurozone. the uncertainty that dominated the fist part of 2012 was all about what happens if the currency situation collapses. i think this positive momentum that we've begun to see in all the major indices, which is when i will they're showing below 50, this shows confidence is returning in both the manufacturing and services sector across the larger
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economy. it's telling us that the directional bias is the more positive one. people are committing further out in terms of their own anticipation expectations. so the detail, if you dig down into it in germany and france is affirming the message that companies are beginning to be more open-minded about upside in 2013 rather than risk in 2013 that things are going to be getting worse. >> and that's from -- as you suggest from those words that draghi, believe me, it will be enough. so are we getting into a more self-fulfilling virtuous state as opposed to a negative downward side? >> we've seen this on both sides. the minute policymakers threaten to call destabilize of the nom, whether it was going over that physical cliff in the states or indeed the idea that there could be a break apart of eurozone currencies, people start thinking, oh, i can make my investment decisions across borders. they're thinking, i have to
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close ranks and consolidate domestically in case there's exterior shops. the removal of that euro risk, a potential decline in a relative eurozone currencies has been enough for investors i think in the corporate sector to start thinking, again, about being part of europe rather than batten down the hatches and minimizing their expansion. so i think that was the mark both from a market point of view and from a corporate point of view of the shift back to it's going to be okay if the central bank stays on side. and that really is why we're seeing an evolution through the last four to six months, so these kind of pmi indicators we've got now. we're not at expansion. we're not at the point where we're thinking everything arrived and everything is rosy. risk has consistently been coming down for investment decisionmakers in the nonfinancial sector. in other words, the industrial sector, and that is enough, i think, to make investors on a broader basis say, okay, europe
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is now somewhere where we can look to get investment returns from in a way that we were going to other direction. >> we'll pause there. pmi is in focus in china. let's get an update on what that has meant to asian markets. li sish win joins us right now. >> japan stole the show here in asia. the nikkei finally got a chance to react to the u.s. budget deal. the index finished nearly 3% higher to a 22-month peak, boosted by, you guessed it, the weak yen. automakers were on hire with toyota shares hitting their highest level since november 2008. more on that coming up later in the show. the kospi finished lower by .4%.
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elsewhere, shares eased by about the same as fomc sentiments weighed on sentiment. in hong kong, weakness in mill and blue chips dragged the hang seng lower by .3%. the shanghai composite failed to impress on its 2013 debut. around 2.2 trillion yuan worth of shares will access their lockup here in 2013 raising liquidity concerns. the latest pmi data says china's services sector continued to grow last month, but at its slowest pace in more than a year. understand use's sensex is still on the move by .1%. >> sixuan, thank you very much, indeed.
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the ftse made gains yesterday, close to a fresh 52-week high. still above 6,000. the dax is pulling away from its recent highs. down 8 points tt moment. the cac down a 1 percent yesterday. the real move, though, there was discussion about whether the fed should stop some members expressing whether they should stop continuing buying assets this year. a bit of consternation. had a big impact on the dollar and treasury yields. treasury yields hitting an 8-month high. 11 .92%. we're above that at the moment. gilt yields moving higher this morning. over 2% yesterday. eight-month highs for those. italy, slightly higher and in spain, as well. on the currency market, the big move has been dollar/yen, 87.95
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is where we've been. 88.31 at the moment. so we've continued to move higher, the 2 1/2 year high on friday. expectations now the bank of japan will ado want dopt more aggressive easing while those minutes suggest the u.s. may stop sooner than expected. euro/dollar, down to 1.30. the aussie dollar is weaker is sterling is also down against the greenback. we were proep probing above 1.63 a couple of minutes ago. they said so the fed comments pretty much dominating today's market session. speaking earlier, principal investor jim corcoran suggested that qe hasn't been particularly effective. >> what we are actually seeing now, i think in terms of the fed comments is, you know, within a year or so we might start buying bonds, we might not need to put any qe into the economy.
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i doubt whether qe created the growth in the u.s. economy. i think it was a turn in the housing market. it was cheap energy and an improvement in u.s. manufacturing. but nevertheless, i think you are seeing for fundamental reasons have pretty good strength in the u.s. >> well, that was jim's view. chris, what do you take away from the minutes yesterday? it had a big impact on the dollar, pushing benchmark yields higher, as well. i think we have to be contextualizing what comes out for minute statements compared with headlines. and i think that the real issue has been the fed has decided in the last six months to start actively talking about policy as part of the policy, if you like. it's the giving voice to what's going on. and we've heard a lot more from the fed about what it's anticipating doing in 2013/14. the idea that there's probably a relatively even balance, bear in mind we have new fed members coming in this year, there's a
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relatively even balance between people that think you should do more accommodate than not. it takes take away the weapons the fed was already working with until we saw the unemployment level coming down to the kind of levels where the fed felt policy victory could be declared. in other words, you were seeing a number down in the low 7%, 7 1/2% area. in that sense, i don't think there's any new year. i think there's a lot of noise around the idea that the fed isn't having to react to be more negative. there isn't greater uncertainty. >> there's a difference between, you know, stopping buying the purchases and going to tightening. >> absolutely. and i think the point about what the fed has been doing, has been inter convenienting not just in government bonds, but also in mortgage markets. that is a bhig step change. the housing market turn around, the key energy have been factors
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helping to drive the economy. quantitative easing hasn't harmed the situation. that's clear. but the dynamic that we're seeing from the fed is we'll remain rel ofly accommodative. but we're not thinking we'll have to jump again. >> you mentioned their targeting employment. let's mention the december forecast. this is the dow jones from employment. 146,000. some think the unemployment rate may pick up, 7.8%, as well. bearing in mind those minutes, it puts even more focus on them if we didn't already have it on the monthly jobs report. presumably, if we get a better number than consensus, we'll see a much better number heading even higher. >> there's never a month in the markets where people haven't thought this month's unemployment numbers important. we had to get through the hurricane sandy issue in terms of what impact that may have
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had. so people always make adjustments. it could be seasonal, seasonal employment numbers up or down, concerns about -- >> but will today's number be seen through the prism of the yesterday? >> i think not only through the prism of the comments of the fed coming through but against the backdrop of what we've been going through with the post presidential election, rejuvenated focus on what's going to have to happen. the concerns about the negative impacts of tightening of tax environment and spending cuts will be put against that context of what's going on in the growth environment. we've been acting as if growth has to follow behind what's been a very stimulus government both fiscally and mourn tearily and that any tightening is putting that at risk. i think any strength coming through in the unemployment numbers that we see today will perhaps take the edge off those concerns and it would be against that back drop i would emphasize
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it. >> it will be seen as the good news that it should be raerchb the negative news it could be. >> absolutely, yeah. the state of the union speech is going to be full of a lot of optimistic commentary. and if you've got some stronger economic data to put that platform on, that's going to be the back drop of the message he's going to be pursuing. that's something we yoont miss with the numbers. >> so it is all about jobs and fed minutes, as well. to get more of that, make sure you stay tuned, 1:00 p.m. eastern, 7:00 p.m. eastern europe time. you don't want to miss that interview. >> the u.s. jobs report today
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says jobs were raised. what do you think the number will be? send us your estimates. still to come, 2013 might not be the best year for european automakers. is now the time to drive away from all those stocks in europe? we'll talk about that when we come back.
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pmi in china and europe and we'll get them in the uk. we've had a jump in the orders given india's sessions. gaston broker has the details from mumbai. hi. >> hi. well, before we started the data point, it's important to point out that we looked at this data point closely. one because the fleet is relatively young and the other, you've had some anecdotal readings in the past that suggests it's not reflecting what the ground picture is. but it's difficult to neglect this data point. activity index jumped from 52.1 to 55.6. also, the new business index has gone up from 57.1 to 54.9.
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that pulled up the composite for manufacturing and services to a near ten-month high at about 56.3 from 50.2. the other encouraging thing was the figures or the input price figure was lower. that came in about 53.9, about 55 and it's lower than the historical average. so just some head room for the central bank of the country. the other point to mention here is it's enough for two months of a lull because we have a festive season called the valley in november and october months. that led to a lower readling than the last two months and this could be an improvement to that. what you're seeing in the index could be a reflection of that pick up and the underlying sentiment is strong. all of this leading up to the big event, the january policy on the 29th. but it looks like the rbi has the gun out of the hoster so it's likely to pull out the trigger and it's expecting a 25 business point rate cut. let's see what happens on that. >> galvin, thanks for that.
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good to see you. other news today, transocean shares are lower after the company agreed to pay a $1.4 billion fine for its role in the gulf of mexico oil spill. the group claims partial responsibility for one of the worst disasters in u.s. history will pay $1 billion in civil penalty and $400 million in criminal penalty. a shell drilling ship having run aground in the coast of alaska has suffered damage, but there are no signs that the 155,000 gallons on board have leaked. shell's emergency response coordinator said the vessel is stable, but offered no details on the impact the grounding would have on the company's future drilling plans. fiat is looking to buy a stake in chrysler. trust has yet to respond
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publicly to the offer. what do you do with stocks like this? chris, the italian new car registration is down at a 33-year low. >> these are relative opportunities that we are looking at in the european auto market. in fear underperformed what was the best sector last year, which is the auto sector. we are seeing the market getting extremely carried away with some of the big headline stocks. the stocks like bmw has gone to valuation levels. really difficult to justify the maintaining exposure, too. the problem that we have is if you are want to go maintain a rising equity environment and you're looking for rotation, we've learned in the past that getting out of stocks going up on the momentum can cost you from a full point of view. but if you are seeing laggards where the story has been a
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sentiment one as opposed to a valuation story, then a return to more normal valuation from something lie fiat is imminently possible against the back drop of the improving economic conditions we were talking about slightly earlier. it's a relative call that we were looking for on a short-term basis than, say, something like bmw. >> if in your view, that is a value sfp. >> there is a value. what happens with stocks like bmw is they lead those concerns and people are afraid of getting out of them. fiat has been a stock where people are claiming the short side relatively well against the long in other stocks in the sector. tun wind of that trade is the kind of opportunity that we would just flag up to people to
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say, don't keep yourself short of a fiat against a bmw when a reverse in bmw, you'll see it relatively undervalued. >> what does per shah come out in the stock of the middle of this, very weak registration data? >> peugeot is not a stock we have any confidence in. it structurally has major problems. but the market has been rewarding peugeot on a relative basis against what the back drop of this being almost an uninvestble business from an equities standpoint. we would continue to sell peugeot. >> it's pulling out some of those stocks and individual performers. it shows you how specific a world we've become. >> absolutely. that is three months and peugeot down 4%. it's a 35, 36-point different l differential.
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>> i think what we have to recognize is the idea of rotating one part of the market to the other or the idea of those rising with the tide. this isn't the environment we're in any more. we have that rally from the summer we were discussing earlier, the draghi comments in europe. a lot of stocks have gone up in line with the market or above the market. but there have been some real stellar outperformers. those are the ones we are flagging up now saying don't think these things are going up forever. they've been a beneficiary of the recovery driving sentiment. but the laggards are often lagereds for a reason. so the adjustments that come back aren't all of those go up, all of those go down. we are finding it difficult to find the sector themes in the short-term and we're very much going into single stock ideas. >> yeah. this is probably the wrong question bearing in mind what you just said, because i was going to talk about the dax as a
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perform, up 311% by the time we got to the first day of trading this year in a 12-month period. you've talked about conversion. >> it's what's been driving the dax in the second half of 2012. >> we did have the trade to sxoegz your to german bunch and people shorting the dax futures. . that was a middle of the year story. that was gaining exposure. that's been dragging the whole market up. that's been very tail wagging the dog if you like. the index funds driving the rally in the dax. the relative argument in favor of the german exporters is being constrained by the fact that we
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are beginning to see expectations that the euro has reached a low and we've seen what's happening to the yen and the impact that that has had, for example, on the korean stocks from a wealth of competitiveness point of view. the export sector in germany knot is not going to about leading the charge again in 2013 because of a weak currency opportunity and i think that is going to be the overhang for what has been the driving stocks in the market. it has been the export sectors in the main and it's in the dax rather than the broad market. >> thanks for that. we've got to say. services pmi continues to tick a little higher into expansion territory for britain. we'll find out in just a few moments.
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dollar and treasury yields continue to grow higher amid policy concerns about the bank's qe program. we could see more strain today from the jobs numbers. expect to show another month as steady and spectacular hiring growth. also, a sign the currency block may have reached a turning point in its crisis.
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december spent the lowest since august 2011. and a disappointing services pmi number coming in at 48.9. it was expected to pick up to 50.5. the new business index at a low 49.4 and 49.6. that has dragged the composite pmi down 49.9 in december. we had a surprisingly strong manufacturing number on two days ago. the q4 average, the low in 3 1/2 years. the market is saying that the composite pmi for december, if you add it altogether for
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november and october, points to a .2% full in q4 gdp. so that first in the services sector for two years raising the likelihood that the uk economy has slipped back into recession. no surprise to see sterling hitting its weakest of the session against the dollar at 1.6042. daniel mccormick is head of european and uk economics. joins us now. a disappointing number, daniel. what are the ramifications? >> certainly disappointing at the margin, there's no doubt about that. but i think looking a bit further ahead, the outlook is not too bad for the domestic side of the uk economy. inflation is falling. that will give real incomes a boost going forward to give you enough in the services consumption. feeds off that to quite a large extent. certainly disappointing number for december, but, you know, i think the broader picture is not so bad.
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>> we were hoping we might be able to avoid a triple dip, but do you think this number suggests we might see a dip in this quarter? >> i think the whole thing suggests a retraction in 2012. as a general statement, the uk economy was in recession for the whole of the year. >> obviously, we had bad weather. but i'm wondering if the fact that we've seen new business orders down, as well, suggests there is still underlying weakness of demand here. and if we do get that contraction, one wonders how that, then, always plays into it. it's not good news for george osborne. we're looking at what he's doing with his growth policies. >> yeah, no, that's right. the uk economy is certainly bumbling along. demand is not strong. but i would make just a couple of points. one is the overall level of the services pmi in the uk is well above that in europe. you know, the uk services pmi has been in the 50 to 5 2 type
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range for quite a while. and the european number has been around the 46 to 47. so in terms of rate of growth, actually, the uk services and domestic economy has been doing better than its continental counterpart and i think the outlook is better. inflation is falling. high inflation has been a key factor holding back consumer spending and retail spending for the last few years. it should at the margin improve a bit. >> daniel, hi. chris here. in terms of the numbers that we get the flurry of information we're getting on a regular basis, is this something that you use to frame your expect aegzs were or is this too short-term? you're talking about the longer term. are you more inclined to use some longer term views on the economic dynamics than just the .6, .7, .8 moves on a
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monthly basis? is that your view or is that helping to shape your expectation? >> if there was a significant shift in the trend in the numbers, obviously, that is significant. but i guess i'm trying to be forward looking. equity markets look six months ahead. the month ended five days ago. so in terms of trying to be forward looking, you need to think about where the economic environment is going to be in six months time and the drivers of that. looking that far ahead, i think the drivers are not too bad. there is support for consumption in the uk. so if won't be a dramatic pick up or anything like that. it's steady as she goes. but i don't think we are falling off a cliff here. we're not dipping down aggressively again. you know, the uk economy is just still sluggish at the end of last year. that's what these numbers signal. >> daniel, you talk about low interest rates for as far as the eye can see. and then i wonder what the
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implications are. you mentioned the equity markets. i wonder what the implications are for investors. >> yeah, absolutely. i think it's not out of the realms of possibility that the uk interest rates are wright out of where they are. that may seem outrageous, but when you look at the spare capacity in the uk economy and the outlook for growth over the next five years or so. that is far from an implausible outcome in my view. and i think where the equity market has it wrong, is that the pe has not adjusted to that interest rate outlook. risk free rates have fallen, but the equity risk premium has gone up in that period. so the pe has not risen in line with the fall in risk free rates. and i think over the next three to four years, you'll see that misalignment corrected. and it's likely that the pe for equity markets moves up from its current level up to something like more like 15, 16 times.
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>> chris, will you disagree with that? >> i'm not an equity salesman. >> i know. >> but i agree with that, daniel is right in that the relative valuation, bear in mind it's not purely uk, but from an investor standpoint, equities are not expensive in the uk against that back drop. but i think we should also not underestimate that from the dynamics of what's going on in 2013-'14, we've just seen the flashes going through there in terms of consumer growth and credit expansion and the role that the banks are going to be laying the next two to three years. the markets aren't focussing on that dynamic, either. they're looking at a flat deleveraging of the economy. but the reality of what the consumer is doing is after four or five years we're seeing some stabilization recovery. we'll see what impact that's had in the united states. we've seen the way the equity
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market in the united states is responding to a housing recovery there. i think that's another dynamic reinforcing danny's point about what the rerating of the domestic related stocks in the uk conservative services should be if we see signs coming through that side. >> your high class research house and that's what you're -- >> my -- would be flatted. i was classified as highly regarded as -- >> thanks for that. chris, stick around. daniel, thank you for joining us. let's remind you of where we are ahead of the employment report, european stocks having a bit of a 35us. well, we had a pause yesterday for germany and france. germany, down about .1%. the cac 40 down around .25% and the ibex is up around .25%. japan's shinzo abe is continuing to put the pressure on the bank of japan. abe is insisting the bank of
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japan hits the 2% inflation target through aggressive monetary easing. a top government spokesman says the next bank of japan chief might be a bureau accurate, but must above all share the prime minister's views. tt is not just a big day for japanese markets, but for operators, as well. a merger of the country's top two exchanges have taken to trade for the first time. and you've seen that the stock is down 9%. and in creating the world's biggest exchange with the market, tokyo's cash equities business is being combined. it's trying to attract more news listing after hosting more than 1% of ipos last year. but in trading today, out for everyone else is exporters like the you automakers that led the rally, we have more on the first posting day traded in the new year. happy new year. >> happy new year, ross. many japanese blue chips
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benefited from a trade rally. automakers shares took advantage of that. toyota and is mazda went up more than 6%. honda rose 4%. strong sales data in the u.s. and a boost in production overseas also helped. toyota said its december sales rose 9% as corolla and prius sales improved. honda were up 26% due to the strong results for its accord ask civic sales. for mazda, it will increase production capacity at its new plant in mexico in the fiscal year ending march 2016. the plant will start operations in 2014 with the initial production of 140,000 vehicles per year. capacity will be increased to 230,000 vehicles in 2016. so plenty of confidence at this point, but investors will want to see it last. back to you, ross. >> as you get thanks for that.
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have a good week. i like that. you get one day and have another week. that's good, isn't it? >> yeah. >> all right. have a good weekend. thank you. let's remind you, as well, we talked about the bank of japan there and then those fed minutes. the dollar/yen, up at a 2 1/2 year high this morning. it's continued to strengthen, as well, as we go through this program. 88.20 is where we stand at the moment. people wonder whether we might have gotten a pull back after the strength we saw in the dollar in the last few weeks. it hasn't happened. we are being driven by yield expectation owes that. what's on the agenda in asia? monday, japanese automakers posting december sales data. hs on the radar will be trade numberes from taiwan along with cpi data for december and china's ever grand real estate will release december sales figures. so the strong performance of
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export financial stocks, it's standing in 2013, by comparison, gains for chinese stocks relatively new between positive and negative territory for most of the session. you can see closing up .3%. concerns about the economy still weighing on sentiment, the december services pmi showed the sector has slowed compared to the month before. thanks very much, indeed, for joining us. we had quite a rise in the shanghai composite in the fourth quarter, up 8%. some relief, i guess, about the championship changeover. where do we go now? >> in china, it's favorite markers for this year, 2013 been valuations are -- in the asia region. having a case scenario where the global economy should start to recover and improve this year
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and that was to help china this was the factory of the world. >> we've got such an export led sort of dynamic in asia. is that going to rebound a little bit this year? >> yes. we feel that the export manufacture i manufacturi manufacturing countries will benefit from the economic recovery that will take place this year. that's why we favor not asia over southeast asia. so korea, taiwan, they're more export and manufacturing driven. >> how much has happened in the eurozone is impacting your decisions? >> generally, the worst of the fears is over.
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it's not to say the crisis is solved. it takes a long time to solve, you know, so you go at this stage but i think that last year it was in recession. this year, we should see some sort of small signs of recovery. though the recovery wouldn't be a huge one. that's why we favor asia a lot more. >> just following up on the more domestic side of things, where are you looking at, for example, the property sector in china? there seems to away shift in focus away from property opportunities in hong kong to the mainland, very much a momentum looking at the opportunities in 2013. is that something that you're focusing on? >> not at this point. you have to keep an eye on inflation. and, really, i would say despite
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the correction, still relatively pricey, especially to the possibility of the average chinese citizen. so the chinese government will not let property go into a run away bull market thing. they will start to clamp down anytime they feel that property is starting to show signs of entering a big move. >> you're cautious, though, on thailand. why? >> generally, thailand had a great run last year. southeast asia in general has a feed. from valuation seconder, it's slitly more aus tensive relative to the other countries. because we feel that the more serious experience in manufacturing and re-enter countries and markets like
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korea, taiwan and china will search this year. so that's why it is not that we think china -- taiwan -- excuse me, thailand market is going fall. but on a relative basis, we think that asia markets will do that much better. >> finally, let's get a view on japan. had a really good fourth quarter in japan. a lot of implications from the leadership change. we've seen comments today from consumers continuing to put pressure on the on bank of japan. the yen continues to weaken. would you be buying the export sector or not? >> no. from a regional perspective, we still don't favor japan as much as the other region. even u.s. looks better than japan and similarly, asia a lot better than japan. at this time, we feel that the group for asia is so much stronger than japan. also, at the same time, i think there is also the dollar/yen
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dynamic to consider, as well. so anytime you have the yen rising again and strengthening again, that will put a crimp on japan's exports. that's something to watch out for. so i think this time we're not so in favor of japan and like asia. >> okay. thanks so much indeed for joining us, general manager at fund people are much more relaxed about where chinese economies go this year compared to parts of last year. what are the indications for resource stocks? >> well, what we always have, a sort of turning point, is people ex transport late to the extremes. when people were thinking that china was slowing down, there was a lot of negative pressure going on saying, this means that demand is going to rel ofly collapse. the reverse is now happening.
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you can see with dollar/yen, if dollar/yen goes back to 100, you buy every japanese exporter in sight. none of those things have happened, but the market continues to take the valuation to its limits. for the resources sector, i think what we have to be aware of is that the supply resources in general is probably about right at the max row back drop we're seeing in china, no collapsing, not booming, europe recovery. actually the demand impact for the resources sector is probably quite muted. there isn't going to be a momentum trade in pure price action of the sector. so it's really about finding the stocks that maybe have been oversold, the stocks have been maybe a little bit overextended. so if you were looking at what's been going on in the australian money, it would be something to take profit clear now because it's anticipating far too much of a short-term momentum. conversely, when you look at precious metals, you might look
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and say, this hasn't reacted at all to what's going to be a stable to recovery demand environment. with that little bit of stabilization coming through, gold isn't going down forever. this is the balance one has to recognize is that because resources stock necessary particular became such financial commodities in the last three to five years, if that dynamic even stabilizes, then the sort of momentum side of the story dissipates and you really have to be picking your winners again from a valuation perspective rather than looking for a broad sway of movement. >> chris will pause there. when we come back, we'll get your views on why diagio is one of the stocks to look at. and also google breathes a sigh of relief as the u.s. federal trade commission ends its probe. we'll take a look at those details, as well.
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so the u.s. jobs report is released today. estimates have been raised to 160,000 jobs added in december. that's on the back of yesterday's strong adp report. we want to know what do you think the jobs number will be? send us your estimates. tweet us, e-mail us or direct to
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me, @ross westgate. from jobs to tech, the chip sector had a decent end to 2012. the semi conductor industry association says global sales are up 2% in november from the previous month and year over year. that's the first annual sales gain of the year. the sia says sales were paced by a 5% gain in the americas. sales up by .4% in europe and down more than 3% in japan. u.s. regulators, meanwhile, have ended a 19 mf month investigation into google, saying the group had not manipulated search results for its own gain. but google has agreed with the federal trade commission to stop scraping reviews and additional data from rival websites. amanda drury has this report. >> the ftc closed a long investigation into google with what many are calling a slap on
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the wrist. the bottom line here, the commission did not find enough evidence to support claims from competitors that google unfairly favors its own services in search results and ignores others. under the agreement, the online search site agreed to stop what's being called scraping. what is that? that's the practice of kulling reviews and other data about its own products off the websites of rivals and self-servingly putting them at the top of its own search results. google argues that taking those snippets from those other systems is legal. google's rivals will now be able to request that their excerpts are kept ow of google results without worrying that links to their welcome backs will be penalized in its rankings. they can advertise their manage advertising campaign on their rivals.
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going the has agreed to license hundreds of standard patents that have been deemed essential to rival hand setmakers and to offer them on fair, reasonable and nondiscriminatory terms. those rival phonemakers include use of suspects like apple, research in motion, the makers of blackberry and microsoft. let's get a few final thoughts. a couple of tech stories there. any particular tech stoms stocks you guys hate or like? >> well, i think what we have to recognize is that tech stocks get really sentiment driven in short-term phases. we have been conscious of the fact that you can look at a stock like apple which is the darling of the market and everybody hates it because it's no longer performing. and then everybody tries to translate market performing since it's an indication of negative future outlook because there must be something going on. a lot of times, tech stocks don't act like that.
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and you can take a stock from nokia which continues to go up because of the windows sales point. the reality is structurally, nokia has fundamental problems. there isn't an argument for nokia to be in favor of the recent prices suggested. if the market rally is more positive in favor of tech, that's why you'll lighten up. you'll get a chance to buy nokia back again, but it's not a stock you would buy and hold forever. that would be where i would focus people in the beginning of 2013 saying don't fall in love with nokia because it's been going up recently. recognize it is what it is, a very troubled business, which isn't going to return much as an equity investor. it is a momentum trade. as that runs out of steam. >> now, i mentioned this into the break, as well. did i aggio, it's on your green buy list. >> green stars, yes. >> green star list this morning, three star green despite an
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upgrade yeah. i think what we're seeing here is the food and beverage sector has been an incredibly stable solid performer for investors the last two or three years. it falls out of favor in sharp market moves because people see it as defensive. >> it's a lot of cash, right? >> yeah. the returns are defensive from an investor point of view. it falls behind when the markets start rising on a broader sentiment move you saw in the last couple of days. vowels are continuing to rise. both short-term values, but the longer term value is a positive one. this stock is cheap. it's the stock where you take opportunities like we're having now, in a relative underperforming environment, even if it's a short-term rally and you take it out again if you're a trader, this is a stock we would look at where you see fundamentals are good, trends are ridesing, it's not expensive. it's the sort of stock you can
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have in your portfolio right now. >> what are the dividends like? >> the point about this stock is it's a momentum trade for the short-term. >> it's not something that -- okay. the cash element isn't something that you -- >> no. there are reasons why people hold this stock and they are dividend related. but you have to look at what's happens with the utilities and the banks and the telcos. this the are the three sectors that are the real dividend players. it's not one that investors feel they can take on the board at the moment and the food and beverage stocks have given them some defensiveness in that regard. that's not a reason for the margin investor to be buying stocks right now. it's a quality company. that's the reason you want to be focusing in on it. >> always good to see you, chris. thanks for that. we're up and running into the new year. now, if you've got any thoughts or comments, e-mail us
4:58 am we're now less than four hours away from the big economics report of the day. it is the december u.s. jobs report. did the uncertainty over the fiscal cliff or the big storm that covered much of the company march last month's figures? we'll decipher the data, what i tell means for investors and what it might mean for the fed when we come back.
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xxx this is "worldwide exchange." here are the headlines today from around the world. the dollar and treasury yields continuing to probe high today. the fed minutes proving surprisingly hawkish amid rising concerns with policymaker less the the bank's qe program. you might feel a bit strange when the u.s. jobs report is expected to show another month of steady if unspectacular hiring growth. and the eurozone composite hits the highest level since march in the sign blocks may have reached a turning point in the economic crisis. and pmi in china showed a slowdown in the rates of services sector. the lowest since august 2011.
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and if you're just joining us, a very warm welcome. a little bit of data out of december cpi estimates is at 2.2%. it was 2.2% in november, but it was forecast to dip to 2.1. so the rates of inflation steadily above the ecb's target level in december. thought to rise across the blockout. there are a number of analysts who said that the ecb will have a window to start qe on its inflation mandate. not even inflation numbers at that particular level. meanwhile, euro/dollar, 1.3010. the dollar has been very strong over the last 20 hours or so, continued its strength today particularly against the yen. post those fed minutes and we'll be framing that with the employment report later. let's bring you straight up to speed with the market action so far today. we start with li sixuan who is in singapore. >> thank you, ross. scar pan definitely took center
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stage here in asia as a stunning outperformer. the nikkei played catch up to the rally on the u.s. fiscal deal as it kicked off its first trading day of the year. the index finished nearly 3% hightory a 22-month peak, yet again boosted by the weak yen. exports suggested automakers were on fire with toyota shares hitting their highest level since november 2008. but the shanghai composite failed to impress on its 2013 debut ending marginally in the green. according to local media, about 2.2 trillion zones of shares will exit their lockup period in 2013 raising liquidity concerns. china's services sector continued to grow last month, but at its slowest pace in more than a year. meanwhile, in south korea, automakers continued to be in reverse gear hurt by the korean
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won's relative strength. the kospi finished lower by .4%. australian shares eased by the same as fomc minutes weighed on sentiment. markets pulled back after a recent rally. the sensex finished about flat while india's services pmi jumped to a three-month high. back to you, ross. >> sixuan, thanks for that. futures are predict ago fairly flat open for the u.s. markets. the dow at the moment is around 10 points below fair value. the nasdaq is about .75 of a point above fair value and the s&p 500 is pretty much on fair value after slim losses on the session yesterday. the ftse was up, down 7 points at the moment. yesterday's zex ra dax is up 6 points. ftse mib down .2%. a lot of action in the bond markets. here is treasury yields. 1.9523%. so we're up at a fresh
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eight-month high today as we go through the session. the jobs report will frame what happens to treasuries more from here. but those yields marking a surprisingly higher. also slightly high yields in italy and spain and bund yields up at 1.5%, as well. on the currency markets, the real big move has been dollar/yen. 88.21 is where we stand at the moment. that's the highest in quite a while. and a changing perception about the fed and the bank of japan, the bank of japan is basically ease more and, of course, if we stop qe a little earlier than we thought in the u.s., that changes differentials. but the dollar up across the board. dollar lower, sterling lower, as well. weak services pmi out in the uk. contracted. we came in with a bigger 48.49. now it looks like the uk did re-enter negative territory for growth in the fourth quarter. a triple dip feared. right. as far as all the prices are
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concerned, oil and gold prices coming back. sprint down to 1.10. spot down a little bit to 1635. so what are investors to do with this news flow? here is a list of thoughts of what some of you our guests watching cnbc have said today. >> if we can buy dollar against the euro above that 1.33 level again, particularly from a uk importer point of view, someone who is buying dollars for a physical delivery rather than a trading perspective, that's a solid hedging rate and a solid buy. i think we'll see the euro/dollar push do know back down as low as 1.27, 1.26 through the course of the year. >> i would go and look at the viewership coming out as i mentioned earlier. next week, a few that are planning to come out. definitely, there's some yield appetite. and i would look into those.
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>> we have to be alert. i'm happy to be overweight for once in equities the this year. but very much with the view to moving quickly should the outlook deteriorate. >> so that's where we stand in the december jobs report expected to rise at a modest pace over own the uncertainty over the fiscal cliff. dow jones is now forecasting a rise of 160,000 in nonfarm payrolls versus the 1.46 that we got in november. bumped up after the adp numbers. several economists have raised at their roles. unemployment holding at 7.7%. average hourly earnings are forecast to rise .2%. joining us with his own views and for the next part of the program, as ever on jobs friday,
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patrick gokeefe. happy new year to you. >> good to see you. happy new year to you, ross. >> right. we've raised expectations post edp. have you? >> well, let's start off with a disclaimer. last month when i was here, my forecast basically made the mayans look like real geniuses. >> i was goinging to come on to that, but you've done it now for me. >> i figured i better preempt you. the -- after yesterday's report from adp, i moved my expectations up. i was about 150,000 private sector jobs. adp was important not only because of what they saw in december, but a significant upside revision to the november data. so i think if anything, we're going to get a little upside surprise from the bureau of labor statistics this morning. maybe as high at 200,000. >> which -- you know, which is going to have implications from the fed.
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i want to come on to that. just going back to the last month, how significant was it because you had said if we got anything over 40,000, you were so certain we were going to get a big sandy impact that didn't happen. what does that mean about your thoughts of the underlying strength of the jobs market? >> well, i think two things happened. one is myself and others expected that the surveys would be affected in terms of response rates. bureau of labor statistics said it didn't see any significant ges in response rates. and apparently the employment disruption, from what we can see in the survey data, just wasn't there. so it does take us back to your question, the underlying strength. i think december is going -- even with the 200,000 adjusted forecasts, december is going to be another mediocre month, closing out a mediocre year. what we have seen thus far is an average of 150,000 or so jobs every month. that's consistent with the jobs
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recovery. we're staying in place in terms of labor force statistics. but we're not making any headway in drawing down the labor resources of the country. >> the monthly averages, though, are an awful lot better than where we are in spring last year. so put it into context versus terms of other job recovery stages. >> well, you make a good point there. what we've seen in the last two years is a situation where in the first quarter of the year, this occurred in both 10 and 11, 10 somewhat subdued and then 11 and is 12. we see very strong growth in the first rt yeaher. we then have a low for the second and third quarter and then beginning in the fourth quarter, i can we're seeing that again this year, a ramping up of hiring. i think some of that is technical in terms of seasonal adjustment. but it does, once again, say to us that this slow, uneven, very
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concentrated growth that has dominated the jobs recovery remains the underlying trend. >> and there's quite a difference between who is creating the jobs and who isn't. there's quite a difference between services providers and good providers. >> absolutely. this jobs recovery flows as follows. it's occurred almost entirely if not entirely in the private sector. within the private sector, the construction and manufacturing industries have basically -- well, construction is still way down. manufacturing is up a little bit. year on year. extraction, very small in part. so we get into the private service providers. that's where all the growth has been. and even there in the private service provider, activity has been highly concentrated in three or four industries over the longer pull health care, leisure, hospitality as well as
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temporary health have been long-term overachievers in the recovery. last month's retail stepped up to the plate, as it had in the prior two months, but when you take those four industries, which prerecession accounted for about 38% of all of the jobs in the private sector, last month they accounted for about 77% of the u.s. gains. this is a very uneven recovery. >> you mentioned that it wouldn't surprise you if we got a 200,000 print. so we'll talk about what that might mean through the prism of the fed, bearing in mind the minutes that we got. stick around. we'll come back to you in about 15 minutes. that's patrick o'keefe. we'll remind you beside tess job data what is on the agenda today. there are some other economic reports out this morning. we have the december ism services index to be released at 10:00 even.
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also at 10:00, we get november factory orders. they're expected to edge up .1%. the fed's vice chairman, janet yellen speaks at the american economic association. that's at 3:30 p.m. and don't forget, of course, with those estimates raised on the payroll report and the factors on the back of the adp number, we want to know what do you think the jobs number will be? send us your estimates. e-mail us, tweet us, as well. we'll take a break. still to come, boeing looks set to soar past airbus as the world's top planemaker. can its european rival fight back? we'll have some analysis and report, right after this.
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if you're just joining us this morning, here are your headlines. investors count down to the u.s. jobs report looking for december payrolls. here in the uk, disappointing services pmi weighs on the pound. looking at the markets and the employment report, other stories we're following today out of the states, the s.e.c. has dropped its case against david sokol and completed its probe of possible insider
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trading, according to his lawyer. in 20111, warren buffett said sokol violated the company's insider rules when he sold a $3 million profit on shares. they rose by neared a third after berkshire announced it would buy the chemical company. the s.e.c. began investigating him shortly after he resigned from berkshire. the tech sector had a decent end to 2012. global sales are up 2% in december from the me month and year over year. it was the first annual of the year. they were down more than 3% in japan. and boeing loose set to take the droen crown of the biggest planemaker for the year.
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so i said airbus. stephane has more of the details here in paris. stephane, what is going to happen, then, with these numbers? >> if it's concerned it's going to be the first time for ten years, in ten years. that airbus will not be the largest plainmaker. we won't be sure about it until the 17th of january. it's when airbus is going to release its commercial results for 2012. the european planemaker has a target of 650 orders for the full year. it's widely expected to report around 900 net orders for 2012 and about 580 deliveries. but it would be less than what boeing announced late yesterday. the u.s. rival booked 1,203 exactly orders last year. and delivered just over 600 planes for 2012. it's the best result for the u.s. planemaker since 2009. and it's also higher than its own forecast for the last year.
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the 737 max is competing with the airbus 320, they both need to reduce fuel consumption by about 15%. and last year for that plane, boeing booked 914 orders. so that explained why the u.s. planemaker is about to regain its crown as the largest planemaker for 2012. >> it's all about bragging rights, isn't it, stephane? they do like to do a bit of bragging. >> are you talking about yourself? >> well, you know, who doesn't, right? i've got more than you is what they -- isn't it, i suppose. i'm not talking about personally, i'm just talking about airbus and boeing. that's not between you and i. >> we're used to that in france. >> i'm on a diet, so hopefully there will le be less of me to come. the federal reserve is
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concerned over quantitative easing. treasury yields still going higher. but is it the end of easy money in sight? we'll talk about that. . plus, a reminder of where we stand for stocks at the moment. decliners outpacing advancers on the dow jones stoxx 300.
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this is where u.s. futures are currently standing at the moment. fairly flat right now. the s&p down just .1. the dow implied lower at 12 points. the nasdaq implied higher by less than a point. it will all change, whatever the employment report tells us. and right now, the market drives have been the fed minutes. the win coming out of the market sales thursday after their release. they suggested some officials at the federal reserve think it may be appropriate to stop their bond buying program well before december. some members saw the purchases would be needed until the end of the year. they all think the open ended stimulus plan which is buying up 40 billion a month in mortgage debt is working. it's uncertain about how long those benefits will last and the potential cost as the fed's
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balance sheet expands. those thoughts and those minutes have continued to move both the dollar and treasury yields higher this morning. treasury has been yielding around 1.95%. patrick o'keefe is still with us from kohn resnik. patrick, i'm wondering, if we get your outliar figure on the jobs report today of 200,000, i'm presuming that at the margin it's going to cause market players to think those voices we cops traited on the fed yesterday are only going to get louder. >> i would think so, as well. what was striking about the minutes that the fomc put out yesterday, number one, they looked like they had been written by a alan greenspan. they were so undeceiverble. but the fed is dealing with a lot of issues that derive from fiscal policies which are
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operating in the premeltdown world. they're unsure as to how long and how far they're going to go. if we begin to see some levels of job growth from the levels we're talking about and beyond, i think it gives them a reason to pull back and at least take their foot off the accelerator. >> but ending purchases doesn't amount to a 06 policy. to do that, the fed would need to start shrinking its balance sheet. surely, we're a long, long way away from that. >> that is correct. but as with any form of stimulus, when you slow down what you're doing, then the rest of the economy in the absence of that is going to feel a little bit of drag. what would be important if they stopped buying is whether they make changes in the way in which they're reinvesting the rollover proceeds and the earnings that they're getting on their portfolio. >> and the other question is,
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you know, how many fed hawks are there, really, in there and how many strength do they actually have? >> heart to say from the minutes. we're not sure whether a few is more than a couple and less than several, where that takes us. but it does explain why when the chairman gave us his press conference, he was less articulate and less clear in his communication than what we've become accustom to. >> so we continue to see yields rising this morning again after the move yesterday. i suppose the thing is, it would be -- look, if they stop purchases, it would be for a good reason, because the unemployment rate is coming down and the economy is stronger. solo we talk about if they stopped what would be the negative impact, they would only be doing it, wouldn't they, if things had got to more
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self-sustaining junction? >> i agree with that. i think a question still out there to be answered is what did the fomc see in december that caused them to announce that they were prepared to increase their balance sheet by another $1 trillion over 12 months? were they placing a hedge in terms of the fiscal cliff? were there reasons other than are apparently visible. we would have to read it as a good sign in terms of the underlying momentum in the economy and the jobs market. >> patrick, stay there. we'll get another slot from you, as well. don't forget, of course, stay tuned to cnbc throughout the day, of course, as ever. but at 1:00 p.m. in particular, concentrate, 7:00 p.m. central european time, jim plea bullard, we'll get his take on all things
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said and reaction to the jobs number, as well. meanwhile, we'll leave you a will at how it's playing out. "worldwide exchange" continues right after this short break. ♪ [ male announcer ] how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life expectancy in the u.s., real estate in hong kong, and the optics industry in germany? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average.
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okay. we're into the last half hour of "worldwide exchange." these are the headlines today from around the world. markets can feel more strain from today's u.s. jobs report is expected to another month of steady and unspectacular hiring growth. this is the dollar and treasury yields continue to probe high after the fed minutes prove surprisingly hawkish among some concerns about the bank's qe program. this is off hsbc and china showed they slowed down in the rates of expansion sector the lowest since august 2011 what time in the uk services pmi is shrinking unspentedly for the first time in two years. that suggests gdp will be negative in the fourth quarter, the pound weaker after the data. ♪ the forecasts have been upgraded
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post the adp number yesterday for payrolls today. 7.7%, the unemployment rate expected to stay steady. ahead of that print today, futures suggesting right now flat open. to the s&p at the moment is pretty much on the flat line. the nasdaq is just about a point above fair value. the dow at the moment is some four or five points below fair value. the european stoxx 600 is down at the session low, up abo about .3%. european stocks, it's only the ibex at the moment that is up, but it's flat down 5 point. slightly more losses than where we were an hour or so ago. the cac 40 down .6%. the ftse closed higher unlike these two markets. the ftse 1100 at the moment, just off 8 points. we continue to look at the impacts in particularly here on
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treasury yields. right now, 1.96% is where we stand. it's a fresh eight-month high for treasury yields. the dollar/yen is up at a fresh 20-month high. here is the thought that some of the experts we've had on the channel this morning. >> if we can buy dollars against the euro above that 1.33 level again, particularly from a uk importer point of view, someone who is buying dollars for a physical delivery rather than a trading perspective, and that's the sole hedging rate, i think we'll see the euro/dollar push back down towards 1.27/1.26 over the course of the year. >> i would go and look at the chutes that are coming out. next week, a few that are planning to come out. definitely that's where there is some yield appetite. and i would look into those.
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>> we have to be alert. i'm happy to be overweight for once in equities this year. but very much with the view to moving quickly should the outlook deteriorate. >> all right. there's some thought today. we'll recap our thoughts about the employment for a little later. meanwhile, the u.s. senate hopes to approve an initial aide package for hurricane sandy victims today. this after new jersey governor chris christie blasted fellow republicans in the house for failing to hold a vote earlier this week. our next guest says the outrage in new york and new jersey contributes far more in federal tax dollars than they get back. joining us for more, joe wiesenhall. patrick o'keefe is with us, as
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well. thank you for joining us in 2013. we're fresh, we're new. >> thank you for having me. >> is that just the way you work in a federal environment? the richer states have to subsidize the poorer? >> it's great. it's a working system. it's a good thing. it's a good thing in our system that we have rich states constantly transferring money to the poorer states. it is a mechanism that makes the federal system work. it's why we haven't had a series of state debt crises. it's why we don't have a big problem like the eurozone and it's good. but then as chris christie pointed out, when there are times when a rich state is in trouble, such as after hurricane sandy and then you have the major sdaen disaster and then you have opposition coming from a political faction that's largely rooted in the red states, in the more conservative states, then you have a problem and you have to look at the fairness of it. and as he pointed out, new jersey certainly has paid enough
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to deserve help from the other states when it's in need. >> yeah. so -- and what's interesting here is it's core legislature, too, with the eurozone. we thought the eurozone was one area with banks in particular. we thought there was a eurozone bank. then we discovered angela merkel said there's no such thing as a eurozone bank. there's a spanish bank, an irish bank. >> that's exactly right. that was the moment people sort of realized, wait a second -- i mean, people always understood that the eurozone wasn't a completed project. but it was after the financial crisis and after angela merkel said each country was responsible for their own banks and bailing them out that people started to think about the credit of each country. and the solution to fixing the eurozone, so to speak, is one of two things. one is what we've seen already where the ecb takes a prominent role in back stopping each country. but beyond that, establishing a
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transfer union like we have here in the united states so that richer countries, you know, are constantly sort of to some extent backstopping the poorer ones. right now in europe, there is an ad hoc vergdz of that where there are these sort of, you know within one at a time bailout situations to greece. but that's not really a sustainable system. but at some point they're going to have to come one a permanent mechani mechanism. the difference between the united states and europe, in europe their frustration among the peripheral countries, mostly germany, dictates economic policy. we've seen this as having a strong role in the ecb in calling for austerity and it's understandable on both sides of the frustration. in the u.s., it seems to be the poorer states that are demanding national austerity and in this case hurting one of the wealthier states that pays in.
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>> yeah. i suppose the dynamics won't change. the interesting thing here, and i'll get patrick's view on this, is that from a sentiment point of view at the moment, we don't seem to be worried about europe. although, you know, we don't know if we can ever move how we get to a -- sort of a single unit or a federal sort of europe. we don't seem to be worried about it because of those words that mario draghi uttered way back in august. and i wonder whether we'll still be relaxed, how long we'll still be relaxed from a sentiment point of view about the eurozone. joe? so i'll get joe's view and then patrick jump in. >> yeah, i don't know. i mean, i think there has been this question sort of late in 2012. there was this question when will spain ask for a bailout? and now the question in 2013 is will they have to ask for a bailout at all? because the question is is the implicit promise that the ecb would step in in emergency via the omt program, is it enough?
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i don't know. but that's kind of like the question for 2013. does anyone need to ask for the ecb bailout for the ecb bailout to be effective? >> patrick. >> well, i think the central bank in europe has certainly given the players there time to try to get things in order. whether or not they're taking advantage of it is a different question. i think that joe's point about what's going on here in terms of transfer union, what we saw the other night, i think, and it has been really focused on, is a conflict of two types of transfers. one was the transfer between generations, which is dealing with the long-term deficit, versus the transfer between regions in the short run because we have a crisis of one versus the other. and it's somewhat ill administrative what happened on that night. having failed to get control of the intergenerational transfer, the house closed shop and didn't deal with the incidenter
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regional transfers. >> we'll leave it there. we have to go. patrick, good to see you today. thanks so much for joining us. joe, thanks very much on the business side. by the way, patrick, i know your father, right, was a fighting irish fan. joe, are you college football, is that a big -- you know, do you get into that? >> yeah, i'm a texas fan. >> okay. all right. so this is a -- we have to talk about this. there's a big game today, right, patrick? >> at the end of the season, notre dame will still be undefeated. >> okay. that's his call. joe, we'll leave you out of it because you're a texas fan. but the reason i mention it, we are just a few days away from what could be the biggest title game in football history. notre dame taking on the alabama crimson tide. we'll break down the business of the bcs championship when we come back.
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today, the fed is looking atmospheres over its asset program as investors count down to the jobs report today looking for a modest growth in december payroll.
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here in brit yap, the services pmi is weighing on the pound. now we're just three days away from what could go down as the most watched college football title game in u.s. history. miami is the epicenter as notre dame takes on the alabama crimson tide. this is a classic in the making. eugene lee is president of etl is associates and joins us now. eugene, here, i'm a big sort of global sports fan. i'm not particularly a college football fan, but even i recognize, sitting over here in london, that this has some gold dust around it. how big is it going to be on the
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field? >> you're looking at two of the most story programs in college football history. alabama with eight national championships, notre dame with seven. and what you have is licensing revenues for each school. they've capitalized on the opportunity to appear in this bcs title game. you've seen the title game licensed on t-shirts, hats, mugs, key chains, you name it, it's there. and on top of that, you have two strong alumni bases for both schools that will travel well. and it will be a boom to miami. the hospitality and the tourism industries after a less than marquis matchup in the orange bowl between northern illinois and florida state. >> what sort of -- you talk dollars about the strong traveling fan base. >> i checked online a couple weeks ago. the cheapest thing i could find a couple weeks ago was 1,500. you can only imagine that those
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prices were going up as we approached game time on wednesday. >> look, the payout, the bcs will go payouts to each school. wa goes into working out what that is and how big is it and how important is it that the numbers two rated teams get this payout? presumably, it only strengthens them for next season, as well. >> that is the truth. you're looking at a rich get richer type situation where you have two historic programs in notre dame and alabama. and the estimated combined payout from bcs title game this year is supposed to be between $44 million and $48 million. so that will definitely help with recruiting, facilities, you name it and those two schools will bid immensely. >> what about individuals in the game? if we get marquis player performances there, notre dame, what will that do to their dollar earning potential? >> oh, i think that a strong performance and a winning performance on monday,
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especially for manti te'o, the linebacker from notre dame, he returned to notre dame for his senior soap. he overcame adversity off the field. he's led this team to a spot in the national championship game. student body has embraced him. he's embraced the student body in return. and if he whips on monday, if notre dame wins on monday, he will join that upper ash lon of athlete endorsers, an unquestioned leader of a championship team, and corporations and companies will pay top dollars for champions, as you've seen with michael jordan and tiger woods. >> so who is going to win, eugene? >> as a notre dame alum, i have to stick with my alma mater. >> all right. >> i'm going with the fighting irish on monday. >> i'm glad you declared your involvement. okay. thanks for that, eugene. have a good weekend. what a game it's going to be. eugene, the president of the etl. >> my pleasure.
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let's remind you, of course, that the notre dame/alabama is that tradition rich championship showdown, huge national, even global appeal. could this matchup be the biggest college game of all time? tune in for more on cnbc sportbis tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern on the nbc sports network, normally hosted by the former anchor of this show. so tune in for that. here are some of the other top stories, also. switzerland dollar's private bank is shutting up shot after pleading guilty to charges of helping wealthy americans evade taxes through secret accounts. the institution agreed to pay nearly $58 million to the u.s. justice department to settle the charges. it's still unclear if wegelin handed over the names to the tax authorities. and if you're going to rome and to the vatican in particular, a reminder now, folks, it's cash only. this is because the bank of italy suspended all banks cards
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payments inside the territory. reports say the action was taken on concerns was not complied to comply with eu safeguards against money laundering. the vatican is now looking for a non-italian bank to help with card services. they did not comment on the bank of italy's concerns. i'm assuming that the vatican is notre dame supporters, as well. meanwhile, the countdown is on the u.s. jobs report. plenty more to come on "worldwide exchange" right after this break.
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so naturally the jobs report will demand the bulk of the spotlight for investors. there are some other xhb reports out this morning.
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the nonfarm payroll reports out at 8:30 eastern. then we go the ism services index released at 10:00 a.m. eastern, looking for an index of 55.4 down from november. also at 10:00, we get november factory orders. janet yellen speaks about systemic risks at the annual meeting of the economics association at 3:30 p.m. futures are atlanta at the moment indicating a flat start but, of course, the open after the report that implied open for the s&p for what it's worth up .2 points for the s&p 500, dow jones is down 7 and fass dak up 2. ben lichtenstein is president of ben, we know what the consensus forecast is. we've upgraded for adp. 160,000. if we hit anywhere near that number, how do we trade through it afterwards? >> for the most part right now,
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the market continues to be poised for the continuing acquisition that we've been seeing. the market enjoying signatures gains this week. we saw the russell into all-time highs. really, what's the focus right now, ross, is the fact that the dollar is enjoying gains, as well. we've been seeing it gain some ground against the euro currency. i think that's mostly related to the fact that we've seen such a strong move in the interest rate products. we've been seeing the 30-year come off for the most part the last three weeks, really, since st election. and even about a week before that, we've seen some high energy activities in the future to the downside, which is a reflection again of higher interest rates to come. so it really is the focus on the dollar. focus on these most recent highs. highs from 2012 in the s&ps. again, poised for continuation of the upside activity. we've been establishing the area to the upside. >> yeah, look, 10-year treasury yields, the last time i looked, we were seeing 1.96%.
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i'll pull the board up, yeah, we're on it, 1.96%. patrick o'keefe saw possibly 200,000 for the jobs report. if we see that in print, where do you think the yields on the dollar might go? >> that would be huge for the dollar right now. we're testing critical levels here. in a mid range trade for the most part on last year's balance. if you look at last year, the upper streaming that 86 level, those established around this 82 level. so the dollar just now finding its way back up above 80 even. we're watching the euro currently around that 1.30 level again. i think if the dollar could get above 82, we could see some momentum building. upside activity. it's quite a ways off last year's highs of 86. but certainly at that upper range or at that upper level and it would open the door for a test of that later this year, i think. we are seeing continued dollar strength that had the chance to break down. we saw the euro currency trading above that 1.32 handle.
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but, again, the dollar keeps coming back and is mostly a reflection of the confidence in the u.s. equity system at this point. >> can we get the dollar and the s&p moving in the same direction? >> that's really what's been happening, are on the ross. it hasn't been an extremely dramatic effect that we're sometimes used to seeing when we see that correlation kind of disconnect. usually we're used to seeing strength in the dollar usually is a reflection of weakness in the stocks. but, again, for the most part, we've been seeing over the last couple of days dollar strength, stocks bid activity. when that's going to break down, i'm not sure. but there's potential, ross, that that could continue for a while. these divergent type plays, if you will, they can tend to play or elongate themselves much longer than we think is reasonable. again, right now with the interest rates starting to see an interest rate spike right now, the dollar bid should continue. >> you you mentioned interest rates. you've got a thought, ben, on where we might see yields, how
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much higher we might see yields heading or whether people think this is the top of the range? >> no, no. i don't think people feel this is the top of the range right now. i think considering some of the comments that we most recently heard yesterday, fomc minutes were released yesterday. and there's talk of, again, we're starting to see some hawkish type -- you know, we're starting to see some fed speakers come out and start to talk about quantitative easing and ending the quantitative easing. so, again, i think that's why we saw such a good move yesterday and we're seeing continuation of that right now. so if that's the case, no, i don't think that the interest rates have seen a high here. and also, one thing to point out is that the hire interest rates are going to be good for the banks, as well. so that's one thing that's going to fuel this upside activity in the stocks. >> ben, good to see you. have a good day. i hope you get through it. >> my pleasure. thank you. >> thank you. ben lichtenstein, president of he's always in shape and always on the ball. today, payroll numbers released
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today. we've been asking what you think the jobs number might be. tito tweeted 153,000, 7 of 6% for the jobless rate. that would be a decline. willie treated, if you smell what the administration is cooking, 315,000. keith is letting us know. and talking about the fed, don't forget, post the employment report and the economic data that i sent today, 1:00 p.m. eastern, we'll be speaking first with the fed president jimmy bullard. don't miss out on that. right now, the countdown to the jobs report. "squawk box" coming up right now. we have a profitable day and a great weekend whenever it arriv arrives.
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